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566 Negotiations between Great Britain and France [1840

The new Minister was an even more ardent supporter of the claims of Mehemet Ali than his predecessor, and, in order to secure his position, under yet greater necessity of humouring public opinion ; and Guizot fully grasped the extreme difficulty of the mission on which he was dispatched. He was, he said, in the position of being unable either to offer or to accept anything. Palmerston had all along insisted on the probable necessity for an eventual coercion of Mehemet Ali, and had even declared, so early as September, 1839, that, in the event of all the Five Powers not being able to join in such a policy, Great Britain would be prepared " to act in concert with a less number than four"; the French Government had been equally obstinate in refusing assent to any measures for depriving the Pasha of Syria.

It was necessary therefore for Guizot to walk warily. He began by approaching the Austrian and Prussian ambassadors, whom he found more amenable to his arguments than Palmerston; and, after two months of negotiation, a compromise was suggested that seemed to present a solution of the difficulty. On May 5 Baron Neumann, on behalf of the Austrian Government, formally proposed to Palmerston that his former offer should be somewhat extended, so as to meet the views of France; Mehemet Ali was to receive, besides Egypt, the pashalik of Acre as far as the frontiers of Tripoli and Damascus, including the town of St Jean d'Acre. Before this proposal was made, Palmerston had made yet another effort " to prove our anxiety to conceal nothing from France, and to carry France along with us," and, in concert with the other three Powers, had formally proposed to convene a Conference of all Five at London to settle the whole Turco-Egyptian Question. This overture Thiers had rejected, on the ground that, in the probable event of the four Powers deciding on coercive measures against Mehemet Ali, France would refuse to be a party to them, and that such refusal would render her separation from the other Powers more marked than if no Conference of the Five had taken place. In spite of this uncompromising attitude, Palmerston was willing to give every possible pledge of his anxiety to keep on good terms with France ; and on May 7, in an interview with Guizot, he signified his acceptance, though with obvious reluctance, of the Austrian proposal.

Guizot's able diplomacy was rendered vain by the intractable temper of Thiers. On May 11, 1840, he replied to the ambassador's dispatch announcing the result of the negotiations, that France could never accept on the Pasha's behalf the idea of a partition of Syria. In coming to this decision he disclaimed any selfish motives on the part of his Government. But Mehemet Ali, he urged, would never listen to such a proposal, the very enunciation of which would drive him to continue his arrested march over the Taurus and " set light to the powder." As for the idea of coercion, the allied fleet might reduce a few coast-towns, but could never drive the Pasha out of Syria.

1840] Policy of Thiers 567

After this declaration, which reads oddly enough in the light of subsequent events, any further negotiation between France and Great Britain would have seemed idle; and, if Thiers believed so firmly in the invincibility of the Pasha, he should have broken with the Concert and ranged France openly on his side. Unfortunately for his own reputation and the prestige of France, he took no such straightforward course; and, before long, circumstances came to the knowledge of the British Government which seemed to point to the fact that he was merely protracting the negotiations at London in the hope of securing an independent settlement in accordance with French views. The opportunity for this was given at this juncture by a change in the situation at Constantinople. Khusrev Pasha, the Grand Vizier, had been dismissed; and Mehemet Ali hailed the fall of his inveterate enemy as removing the main obstacle to a reconciliation with the Sultan. He proposed to Cochelet, the French consul-general at Alexandria, to make advances to the Porte and, as an earnest of his peaceful intentions, to begin by sending back the Ottoman fleet, " not doubting," so the consul-general's dispatch ran, " that this spontaneous action on his part would lead to a direct and amicable arrangement of the Turco-Egyptian Question." On June 21, his envoy, Sami Bey, actually arrived at Constantinople, ostensibly to congratulate the Sultan on the birth of his daughter, really, with the aid of French influence, now all-powerful at the Porte, to pave the way for a settlement. The dispatch of the French consulgeneral was forwarded to Guizot on June 30, Thiers adding: "This condition of affairs argues strongly in favour of postponing any decision in London. I have written to Alexandria and Constantinople to counsel moderation on both sides; but I have been careful to forbid the agents to enter on their own account, and as a French undertaking, on a negotiation of which the avowed aim is a direct arrangement. If such an enterprise is imputed to us, you will be in a position to deny it."

It is clear that, in spite of the somewhat disingenuous disclaimer contained in the last paragraph, this action of Thiers was a violation of the spirit, if not of the letter, of the agreement implied in the joint Note of July 27, 1839. His proper course would have been to have at once communicated Mehemet Ali's proposal to Palmerston, in order to concert with the other powers measures to meet the new situation revealed by it. As it was, the discovery of what seemed an underhand intrigue on the part of the French Government produced on the Powers exactly the effect which Thiers had foreseen and deprecated. " They have seen in this," wrote Guizot on July 11, " or at least they believe themselves entitled to see in it, an action long concerted between the Pasha and France, who has long been preparing it at Alexandria as at Constantinople. They consider the act of Mehemet Ali and its success as involving, first, the ruin of the Note of July 27,1839, and of the common action of the Five Powers; secondly, the complete individual triumph

568 Isolation and indignation of France [1840

of France at Alexandria and Constantinople." This was certainly the view of Palmerston, who believed that the cause of France's dilatory tactics was now revealed. His reply was prompt. On July 17, he read to Guizot a long memorandum, in which he announced that the four Powers, in consequence of the refusal of France to share their views, had been reluctantly forced to conclude with the Ottoman Porte a Convention for the settlement of the affairs of the Levant, without the concurrence of the French Government. At the same time he expressed the hope that, since France had often reiterated that she had no objection to the arrangements which the four Powers wished Mehemet Ali to accept, provided he should consent to them, she would not oppose the measures which they, in concert with the Sultan, might judge necessary in order to secure that consent; and, finally, that this " partial and temporary disagreement" would do nothing to disturb the relations of sincere friendship which he wished to see preserved between the two countries.

For a while it seemed as though this pious wish were not to be realised. The news of the " mortal affront" to the honour of France, as Guizot termed it in the first moment of chagrin, was received in Paris with immense excitement. The whole of the press was clamorous for war, and Thiers himself exclaimed that the alliance with Great Britain was shattered. Under his direction the country was filled with warlike preparations. Palmerston watched these demonstrations with an equal mind. France, he argued, was no longer the France of Napoleon ; the rule of a military caste, which depended for its wealth on the plunder of Europe, was one thing; that of the bourgeois class, drawing a comfortable income from rentes, another. The bellicose tone of Thiers' public utterances was in fact intended mainly to satisfy the amour-propre of the French public. His language to Guizot, who remained in London, revealed a more circumspect temper. " Be careful," he wrote on July 21, " while allowing our just resentment to be felt, to avoid a peremptory tone. We must take up our position and view the future with sangfroid. The King is very calm; we are as calm as he. Without noise, we will make preparations more solid than apparent. We will make them apparent should the situation demand it." In view of the extreme delicacy of the situation, both parties were indeed careful to diminish the risk of a violent rupture by studious moderation. The French Government instructed its admiral in the Levant to avoid all misunderstanding with those of the allied fleets; and Palmerston, for his part, undertook that no blockade of Egyptian ports should be declared; that, should the Sultan exercise his right of blockading his subject's harbours, the Allies would take no share in any such blockade ; and that the rights of neutrals should be strictly protected.

The Convention of London, of which the draft had been prepared by Palmerston so early as the previous January, but of which the first

1840] The Convention of London 569

definite knowledge was conveyed to the French ambassador in the interview of July 17, was signed on July 15. By this instrument it was agreed that, the Sultan having come to a complete understanding with the signatory Powers as to the terms to be granted to Mehemet Ali, the High Contracting Parties were to unite their forces, if necessary, in order to compel the Pasha of Egypt to accept the settlement, and, in the event of his continuing his march on Constantinople, to protect the capital and the Straits against him, continuing their joint occupation so long as the Sultan should judge necessary. Care was taken to make it clear that this co-operation in the protection of Constantinople and the Straits was accorded at the express invitation of the Sultan, and only applicable to the special case defined in the treaty. As to the terms of settlement, it was arranged by separate articles that, in the event of Mehemet Ali yielding within ten days, he should receive the hereditary pashalik of Egypt together with the administration for life of southern Syria, with the title of Pasha of Acre and the command of the fortress of St Jean d'Acre. If at the end of ten days he should remain obdurate, the Sultan's offer of Syria and Acre would be withdrawn; and if at the close of yet another ten days he were still defiant, the Sultan would hold himself at liberty to withdraw the whole offer and take such measures as his own interests and the counsels of his allies might suggest to him. By a protocole reserve of the same date it was agreed that the Convention should be put in force without awaiting the exchange of ratifications. Finally, by a Protocol signed at London on September o and communicated to Guizot on the 17th, the Allied Powers formally disclaimed any intention of deriving separate advantages from their intervention.

Meanwhile the action of the Allies under the Convention had begun. On August 11, Sir Charles Napier had appeared off Beirout and summoned Suleiman Pasha to evacuate the town and Syria. As yet, however, no shot had been actually fired; and the French Government pressed Mehemet Ali to moderate his terms. On September 17 Thiers wrote to Guizot that the Pasha would accept the hereditary pashalik of Egypt and that of Syria for Ibrahim for life. Palmerston, however, would hear of no modification of the terms of the Convention of July 15. In any ease it would have been too late to avert hostilities. On September 11, Napier bombarded Beirout and landed an Ottoman force to operate against Ibrahim in Syria. Four days later the Sultan, who had broken off all negotiations with Mehemet Ali's envoy on the first news of the revolt in Syria, which had taken place in August, declared Mehemet Ali deposed and nominated his successor, on the ground that the term allowed by the additional articles of the Convention had expired. At Alexandria, on September 23, the consuls of the four Powers notified to the Pasha their own removal and at the same time the approaching arrival of the Sultan's sentence. " Mehemet Ali received them and their notification of his own deposition with great sang-froid, observing

570 Resignation of Thiers [1840

that such denunciations were nothing new to him ; that this was the fourth, and that he hoped to get over it as well as he had done the other three, with the help of God and the Prophet."

The pious confidence implied in the last phrase was doubtless reinforced by a not unnatural expectation of French support. The news of the events in the East had created intense excitement at Paris. An extraordinary meeting of the Ministry-was held; and, on October 8, instructions were sent to Guizot to inform the British Government that France would never tolerate the execution of the Sultan's ban of deposition. Palmerston, realising the gravity of the situation, instructed Ponsonby to press upon the Sultan, in the event of Mehemet Ali's speedy submission, not only to withdraw the sentence of deposition, but to confer on him the hereditary pashalik. But this was not enough to satisfy French opinion, which saw in the Convention of July a new coalition directed against France. Thiers talked at large of reviving the glories of 1793, placing France at the head of the Revolution, sweeping away the flimsy barriers of the treaties of 1815, and advancing the French frontiers once more to the Rhine. Military preparations were hurried on, and for a while war seemed inevitable. The Emperor Nicholas, who had been using the crisis to draw closer the ties of a good understanding between Great Britain and Russia, of his own accord offered to send a squadron to the assistance of the British in the event of their being attacked by France.

At the last moment, however, Louis-Philippe shrank from the appeal to arms, the probable consequences of which Lord Melbourne had been careful to point out to him through Leopold, King of the Belgians. The new Chambers had been summoned for October 28; and Thiers had prepared a speech from the Throne which would have been practically a gage of defiance to Europe. "France," it declared, "which has not been the first to expose the world to the fortune of arms, must hold herself ready to act on the day when she believes the balance of the world to be seriously menaced." This was language which Louis-Philippe felt himself unable to use. On October 21, accordingly, Thiers and his colleagues resigned; and a new Cabinet was formed under Marshal Soult, with Guizot as Foreign Minister. The new Chambers met on November 5 ; and the King's speech, which, under a cloud of brave phrases, was evidently intended to cover a retreat, raised a hurricane of protest in the country and in the Parliament. Out of the chaos of criticism, accusation, and personal recrimination, only one clear fact emerged: that nobody wanted a war which everyone felt to involve risks out of all proportion to the contingent benefits. The address on the Egyptian Question proposed by the Government was carried on December 4; and peace was assured.

This result was aided by the unexpectedly rapid collapse of Mehemet Ali's power. The French had reckoned on his being able to keep the

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