fluence upon trade generally, causing retailers to use up their stocks closer and replenish for immediate wants, and causing roasters to purchase with more circumspection, and, generally, a disposition to scrutinize credits with greater care. It is generally admitted that actual consumption always preys upon the invisible supply when influences like the foregoing have prevailed. The enormous deliveries that took place during the year 1892 no doubt largely increased the invisible supply and created a convenient surplus from which to supplement a year of short supplies.

Crop Prospects.-This important factor in shaping the course of trade is undergoing such frequent revision from month to month, and opinions are generally so diverse that it is difficult to put forward estimates that will not be open to criticism, but in the foregoing remarks an effort has been made to occupy a conservative position. At this season of the year (March) it is possible to arrive at a much more accurate estimate of a number of the more important crops, for the reason that they have reached a stage of maturity where they are less liable to be affected by climatic influences or devastating storms. This is especially true of the Brazil crop, which in three months more will be upon the market. The Venezuelan and Colombian crops are already being gathered and sent forward, and the Central American and Mexican crops mature still earlier, and shipments are now on the wane. It is possible, therefore, to give, with a fair degree of accuracy, the prospective supply of the world, or at least with sufficient accuracy to foreshadow that, after a year of short supplies in almost every direction, there is to be a return to larger production. Europe and the United States use up, upon an average, about 10,600,000 bags every twelve months. In 1893 the deliveries aggregated over 11,000,000 bags, and every available source of supply was drawn upon to meet the requirements of the demand.

Brazil.--The consideration of the supply from this country is of first importance, since it furnishes more than one-half of the world's requirements. Estimates must be based necessarily upon the crop year, which begins July 1st and concludes with the succeeding month of June. In reviewing the operations of each calendar year, therefore, it is necessary to take into consideration three crops, two of which have contributed to the actual supply, and the third is to afford the prospective supply. From January to July we receive the last half of one crop, while from July to December the first half of the succeeding crop is being shipped hither. A third crop necessarily comes into consideration in making forecast of the future:

FIRST. With respect to the last completed crop, that of 1892-93, the estimates of a year ago, viz., 6,000,000 bags, came very near the actual reality. The receipts for the crop year ending June 30, 1893, at the principal shipping ports, were as follows, with comparisons for previous years:

The export for the year 1893 was as follows:

From Rio to the United States,..

.bags, 1,972,767

808,764

SECOND. The present crop, that of 1893-94, is a small one, and will fall considerably below the estimates made a year ago, when a yield of at least 5,000,000 bags was predicted. The export will, from present appearances, amount to a little more than 4,000,000 bags, which is a very serious shrinkage compared with the two previous crops. The total receipts up to January 1, 1894, for the past three years have been as follows:

During the remaining six months of the crop year the receipts will be much smaller, and conservative authorities now estimate that the total yield will not exceed 4,250,000 bags, or 1,750,000 bags Rio and 2,500,000 bags Santos.

THIRD.-The estimates of the growing crop, which is now maturing, and the marketing of which will commence next July, are much more encouraging and foreshadow a much more abundant yield than the present crop. The early reports of the flowering were most favorable, and although continuous rains and cold weather last fall, and the intense heat and drought of December and January retarded the development of the fruit to some extent, no serious damage has occurred. There is at present the usual difference of opinion as to the prospective yield, but the average of a number of estimates is 3,250,000 @ 3,500,000 bags Rio and 3,750,000 @ 4,000,000 bags Santos.

Venezuela.-The supply from this country will aggregate about 900,000 bags, but as there is a duty of 3 cents per pound upon all importations from Venezuela and the United States of Colombia, only a very small quantity is likely to find a lodgment in this country.

Mexico and Central America.-The present Mexican crop is a short one, fully 30 per cent. less than that of the previous year, and

C

latest advices say that it will not exceed 230,000 quintals, but the growing crop, which will mature in November and December next, will be much larger, and present estimates place the yield at 400,000 quintals. The supply from the Central American States will be about the same as last year.

West India Islands.-The Haytian crop will amount to about 500,000 bags, but very little, if any, will come to this country. The other islands will produce about 250,000 bags, of which a fair proportion of Jamaica usually comes to the United States.

East Indies.-There has been some improvement in the crop outlook, and a slight increase is foreshadowed in the available supply.

The production of British India and the Philippine Islands goes entirely to the Continent of Europe. A small per centage, 500 to 600 tons, of the Island of Ceylon is largely absorbed in this country, and about 30 per cent. of the Mocha crop is also shipped hither, but there is no reliable information respecting the prospective supply from these sources.

Taking the sources of supply from which shipments are made to Europe and the United States, the quantity available for the next twelve months will be about as follows:

RANGE OF PRICES OF BRAZIL COFFEE, No. 7 EXCHANGE STANDARD, IN THE NEW-YORK MARKET, DURING THE YEAR 1893.

REVIEW OF THE TEA TRADE OF NEW-YORK,

FOR THE YEAR 1893.

THE tea market during the year under review was controlled chiefly by two influences, viz., the unprecedented low price of silver and the financial panic, and to these are due the two prominent features that mark the course of trade, viz., heavy importations and low prices. Silver being the basis of the currency in China and Japan, from whence supplies are drawn, it necessarily follows that the value of so important an article of export as tea must be very materially affected by fluctuations in the commercial value of the precious metal, and it also follows as a necessary consequence, that the price which producers can obtain for their product, as well as the cost of the same to export buyers, must become potent factors in determining the relative volume of export. In other words, the higher prices that producers receive, the more they will endeavor to produce and market, while the cheapening of cost to export buyers, acts as an incentive for more liberal shipments. This statement is peculiarly true as regards tea, for the reason that the quantity available each year is less dependent upon climatic influences than almost any other crop or agricultural product, such as wheat, corn or other cereals, or sugar, coffee, fruit or spice. The shrubs can be made to yield an almost unlimited supply of leaves, and their preparation for market depends upon the will of the native merchant rather than upon the providence or improvidence of nature. The value of the Mexican silver dollar, which is practically the currency of China, is not affected by fluctuations in the commercial value of silver, so far as the native is concerned, because nearly every thing he consumes is of domestic origin. The purchasing power of the coin remains almost the same whether silver is 30d. or 60d. per ounce, the only exception to this general statement being cotton fabrics of foreign manufacture and kerosene oil, but as a matter of fact, the cost in both instances is so low, and within recent years has been so materially cheapened, that he scarcely feels the slight differences that would result from fluctuations in silver. On the other hand, depreciation in the value of the metal has enabled the native merchant to demand and obtain a higher price for his produce, and this advantage he has not been slow in pressing, so that as a matter of fact, prices now paid to native producers are from 30 to 40 per cent. greater than ten years ago. Under these circumstances it is not difficult to understand how the price of silver, which during the past year has been not only steadily downward, but has touched a point hitherto unknown, has formed one of the most potent influences in shaping as well as controlling the course of trade in tea. The other influence noted

above, the financial panic, could scarcely fail to make itself felt in the tea trade. So general a shrinkage of credit, such a wide-spread feeling of distrust and such a general disposition to retrench and keep within conservative lines, necessarily restricted operations in almost every department of commercial activity, and those engaged in the tea trade found it necessary to practice conservatism so long as disaster threatened. The effect of this enforced retrenchment was at first wholesome, but as soon as the restraint had been in some measure removed, the over-sanguine views of importers resulted in an expansion of orders that since then has turned their ventures into unprofitable operations.

The descriptions of tea chiefly shipped to the United States and Canada do not find a market in any other tea-consuming country. Europe is the great market for Congou, while the United States takes almost the entire export of Japan, Formosa, Foochow and Amoy Oolong and Green tea, hence they are prepared with special reference to the taste of consumers here, and, therefore, we have practically no competitors in buying. It is also true that the quality of a very large proportion of the various kinds consumed in this country is of the very poorest, such as the natives of China and Japan will not use themselves, and that really does not deserve the name of tea. The Government Inspector has done well in closely scrutinizing the imports during the past year, and as a result of his watchfulness a considerable quantity has been condemned as unfit for use. The reason for the large consumption in this country of common, low grade tea has often been explained, it being due altogether to the manner in which the retail or distributive trade is conducted. The gift enterprise scheme, upon which nearly all tea is retailed, encourages the retailer to supply the very commonest kind of stuff that his customers can be induced to accept, since with them tea appears to be a secondary consideration. Ostensibly they purchase a pound of tea, but in reality they look more to the gift that goes with it. This is possible because we are essentially more a coffee than a tea-drinking people.

The average price of silver during the year 1893 was, in sterling, 35 d. per ounce, or 78 cents in United States currency. The highest was 384d. and the lowest 301d., the tendency having been almost steadily downward from the commencement to the close of the year. Since then, however, there has been a further decline, the sterling price having been as low as 274d. The average price for the year is about 10 cents per ounce lower than in 1892 and about 20 cents lower than in 1891.

The quantity of tea offered through the auction room shows a further falling off compared with 1892, and this method of distribution appears now to be only used as a last resort, or, in other words, for the purpose of forcing upon the market, mainly, goods that could not be disposed of at private sale. Scarcely any Japan has been sold in this way, but common country Greens have found a constant outlet in this way.

Imports. It is impossible to deal with the receipts of any one