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view which I had advanced. I rest this opinion chiefly on the general tenor of the reports from our agents in foreign countries, published in the early part of this year. Taking these reports as a whole, they seem to me to speak in that sense. But I think the same conclusion may be deduced from facts furnished by Mr. Brassey, though it would seem that his own opinion favours the opposite view. For example, I find it stated (pp. 18, 19) that "inquiries in Spain and France, Belgium and Prussia, show that provisions in those countries are from 20 to 30 per cent. dearer than twenty years ago." Now, though I do not pretend to have gone of late minutely into the question, I will venture to assert that the advance in the prices of provisions in England during the same time has been very considerably greater than this. To take a few important items, I find that, comparing 1851 with the present year, the advance in the price of mutton has been 58 per cent.; of beef, 68 per cent.; of butter, 42 per cent.; of bacon, 60 per cent.* And I have little doubt that, omitting the article of flour (the movements in which since 1851 have been substantially uniform over Western Europe), the less important articles of provisions, such as potatoes, poultry, cheese, fresh vegetables, &c., have experienced a rise little, if at all, short of that shown by these figures. Accepting then Mr. Brassey's statement as to the advance in the prices of this class of articles in the leading Continental countries, I am justified in saying that the rise has been considerably greater here than there. But this fact, duly weighed, Prices current for those years.

* See Economist.

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will be found to go far to decide the whole question; for, if we consider what the commodities are in which a serious deviation of local prices from the common standard is possible, we shall find that, with the exception of houses, they consist mainly of provisions. Of dry goods and articles of general manufacture-of all commodities, in a word, not quickly perishable and easily portable-the prices in different European countries, allowance being made for the effect of tariffs, will, as a rule, not differ by more than the cost of carriage between the compared localities. A more rapid advance, therefore, in the price of provisions in England than on the Continent, means a more rapid advance of local prices here than there. And it means more than this. The great consumers of provisions are the masses, whose expenditure it is that must in the main determine for this class of goods the fluctuations of price. Where, therefore, the prices of provisions have in a given period advanced more rapidly in one country than in another, the reasonable inference is that the movement in prices has been preceded by a parallel or nearly parallel movement in wages.

On no other hypothesis, so far as I can see, is the phenomenon explicable. I am inclined, therefore, notwithstanding the evidence Mr. Brassey has brought forward of a more rapid rise of wages in engineering and kindred trades abroad than with us, to abide by the view taken in the Essays. Comparing prices and wages here and on the Continent of Europe, and making allowance for disturbing causes, they appear, on the whole, to have progressed, under the influence

of the increased supplies of money, much as I ventured to predict they would progress; that is to say, they have advanced more rapidly here than there. Such at least seems to me to be the tenor of the evidence down to the present time.

With these remarks I now submit these speculations to the judgment of the reader.

I.

ESSAY TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF THE

GOLD QUESTION.

THE AUSTRALIAN EPISODE.*

IN the discussions which have taken place respecting the probable consequences of the Californian and Australian gold discoveries, there is a branch of the general question which has not yet received from economists that degree of attention, to which from its scientific importance it seems to be entitled. I allude to the effects produced by those events in the countries which have been the scene of their occurrence. In the great world of commerce, the action of the new money for the most part escapes notice amid the variety and complexity of the phenomena in which it is involved. The area over which the increasing supplies have to act is immense, the extraneous incidents affecting the course of their diffusion are numerous, and the real tendency of the movement is thus in these cosmopolitan transactions not easily discoverable. But within the more limited sphere of the auriferous countries this is not the case. The gold

* Frazer's Magazine, September 1859.

discoveries have there been the predominant influence, and being less controlled by circumstances, the real character of the new agencies and the results to which they are leading come distinctly and prominently into view. California and Australia, during the period of their auriferous history, furnish us with what Bacon would call "an ostensive or predominant instance" of the action of such agencies, showing their nature (to borrow his language) “naked and palpable, and even in its exaltation, or in the highest degree of its power-that is to say, emancipated or freed, from impediments, or at least, by force of its native energy, dominating over these, suppressing and coercing them." * Hence, by studying the effects of the gold discoveries in these countries, we may gain a clearer and steadier view of the real nature of the causes which are at work than we are likely to obtain from the more extended and complicated transactions of general commerce. By tracing the events which are there presented, we may be guided to conclusions which (if the illustration be allowed) may serve as a sort of economic chart of the new monetary influences-a chart which, though it may be drawn upon an exaggerated scale, will all the more clearly indicate the true direction of the currents, and the ultimate goal whither they are bearing us.

With this view, I propose in the following paper to examine the effects of the gold discoveries i Australia on its trade, industry, and pecuniary relations. The course of events in California during its auriferous history has been extremely similar, and the

* "Novum Organon," Lib. ii. Aph. 24.

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